Anticipation and Adaptation in Particulate Matter Policy: The European Union, the Netherlands, and United States

The evolution of particulate matter (PM) air quality policy in the European Union and in the United States between 1970 and the present has been atypical. The US government and the European Commission have mandated scheduled reviews of PM policy over the past three decades and have updated that policy to new scientific information on multiple occasions. The use of planned adaptation over such a long period and in this manner, as a means to deal with uncertainty, has not often been reproduced in air quality policy. Furthermore, particulate matter policy in the EU and US does not conform to the commonly held perception that the EU’s environmental policies are, by and large, more precautionary than the respective policies in the United States. The US decisions to adopt air quality standards for PM10 and PM2.5, in 1987 and 1997 respectively, led those in the EU by approximately nine years. An analysis of the comparative stringency of the PM standards in the US and EU shows that the PM2.5 standard the US implemented in 1997 is more stringent than the standards that have been proposed in the EU by the European Commission and the European Parliament. In September this year, the US repealed their annual standard for PM10. Prior to that, however, the annual PM10 standard the EU implemented in 1999 was more stringent than the one the US adopted in 1987. The daily PM10 standards in the EU and US are of similar stringency. In the Appendix, these comparisons in stringency are discussed in more detail. The differences between the EU and US policies are remarkable because they are based on the same science and therefore reflect dissimilar processes of interpreting that science and the uncertainties inherent in it. The two cases themselves focus on the sciencepolicy interfaces for their respective governing bodies. The EU case also looks at the science-policy interface in the Netherlands. The US case also examines policies for sulfur dioxides that relate to the PM policies. The remainder of this summary discusses how characteristics of the science-policy interfaces may have led to the differences in outcomes

Effect of acute pesticide exposure on bee spatial working memory using an analogue of the radial-arm maze

Pesticides, including neonicotinoids, typically target pest insects by being neurotoxic. Inadvertent exposure to foraging insect pollinators is usually sub-lethal, but may affect cognition. One cognitive trait, spatial working memory, may be important in avoiding previously-visited flowers and other spatial tasks such as navigation. To test this, we investigated the effect of acute thiamethoxam exposure on spatial working memory in the bumblebee Bombus terrestris, using an adaptation of the radial-arm maze (RAM). We first demonstrated that bumblebees use spatial working memory to solve the RAM by showing that untreated bees performed significantly better than would be expected if choices were random or governed by stereotyped visitation rules. We then exposed bees to either a high sub-lethal positive control thiamethoxam dose (2.5ng-1 bee), or one of two low doses (0.377 or 0.091ng-1) based on estimated field-realistic exposure. The high dose caused bees to make more and earlier spatial memory errors and take longer to complete the task than unexposed bees. For the low doses, the negative effects were smaller but statistically significant, and dependent on bee size. The spatial working memory impairment shown here has the potential to harm bees exposed to thiamethoxam, through possible impacts on foraging efficiency or homing

Neonicotinoids thiamethoxam and clothianidin adversely affect the colonisation of invertebrate populations in aquatic microcosms

Surface waters are sometimes contaminated with neonicotinoids: a widespread, persistent, systemic class of insecticide with leaching potential. Previous ecotoxicological investigations of this chemical class in aquatic ecosystems have largely focused on the impacts of the neonicotinoid imidacloprid; few empirical, manipulative studies have investigated the effect on invertebrate abundances of two other neonicotinoids which are now more widely used: clothianidin and thiamethoxam. In this study, we employ a simple microcosm semi-field design, incorporating a one-off contamination event, to investigate the effect of these pesticides at field-realistic levels (ranging from 0 to 15 ppb) on invertebrate colonisation and survival in small ephemeral ponds. In line with previous research on neonicotinoid impacts on aquatic invertebrates, significant negative effects of both neonicotinoids were found. There were clear differences between the two chemicals, with thiamethoxam generally producing stronger negative effects than clothianidin. Populations of Chironomids (Diptera) and Ostracoda were negatively affected by both chemicals, while Culicidae appeared to be unaffected by clothianidin at the doses used. Our data demonstrate that field-realistic concentrations of neonicotinoids are likely to reduce populations of invertebrates found in ephemeral ponds, which may have knock on effects up the food chain. We highlight the importance of developing pesticide monitoring schemes for European surface waters

Tales of future weather

Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The traditional approach uses ensembles of climate model simulations, statistical bias correction, downscaling to the spatial and temporal scales relevant to decision-makers, and then translation into quantities of interest. The veracity of this approach cannot be tested, and it faces in-principle challenges. Alternatively, numerical weather prediction models in a hypothetical climate setting can provide tailored narratives for high-resolution simulations of high-impact weather in a future climate. This 'tales of future weather' approach will aid in the interpretation of lower-resolution simulations. Arguably, it potentially provides complementary, more realistic and more physically consistent pictures of what future weather might look like

Ethical Issues in Engineering Models: An Operations Researcher’s Reflections

This article starts with an overview of the author’s personal involvement—as an Operations Research consultant—in several engineering case-studies that may raise ethical questions; e.g., case-studies on nuclear waste, water management, sustainable ecology, military tactics, and animal welfare. All these case studies employ computer simulation models. In general, models are meant to solve practical problems, which may have ethical implications for the various stakeholders; namely, the modelers, the clients, and the public at large. The article further presents an overview of codes of ethics in a variety of disciples. It discusses the role of mathematical models, focusing on the validation of these models’ assumptions. Documentation of these model assumptions needs special attention. Some ethical norms and values may be quantified through the model’s multiple performance measures, which might be optimized. The uncertainty about the validity of the model leads to risk or uncertainty analysis and to a search for robust models. Ethical questions may be pressing in military models, including war games. However, computer games and the related experimental economics may also provide a special tool to study ethical issues. Finally, the article briefly discusses whistleblowing. Its many references to publications and websites enable further study of ethical issues in modeling

Ethical principles in machine learning and artificial intelligence: cases from the field and possible ways forward

Decision-making on numerous aspects of our daily lives is being outsourced to machine-learning algorithms and artificial intelligence (AI), motivated by speed and efficiency in the decision process. Machine learning (ML) approaches - one of the typologies of algorithms underpinning artificial intelligence - are typically developed as black boxes. The implication is that ML code scripts are rarely scrutinised; interpretability is usually sacrificed in favour of usability and effectiveness. Room for improvement in practices associated with programme development have also been flagged along other dimensions, including inter alia fairness, accuracy, accountability, and transparency. In this contribution, the production of guidelines and dedicated documents around these themes is discussed. The following applications of AI-driven decision making are outlined: a) Risk assessment in the criminal justice system, and b) autonomous vehicles, highlighting points of friction across ethical principles. Possible ways forward towards the implementation of governance on AI are finally examined

Comparing two intramedullary devices for treating trochanteric fractures: A prospective study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Intertrochanteric fractures are surgically treated by using different methods and implants. The optional type of surgical stabilization is still under debate. However, between devices with the same philosophy, different design characteristics may substantially influence fracture healing. This is a prospective study comparing the complication and final functional outcome of two intramedullary devices, the intramedullary hip screw (IMHS) and the ENDOVIS nail.</p> <p>Materials and methods</p> <p>Two hundred fifteen patients were randomized on admission in two treatment groups. Epidemiology features and functional status was similar between two treatment groups. Fracture stability was assessed according to the Evan's classification. One hundred ten patients were treated with IMHS and 105 with ENDOVIS nail.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were no significant statistical differences between the two groups regarding blood loss, transfusion requirements and mortality rate. In contrast, the number of total complications was significantly higher in the ENDOVIS nail group. Moreover, the overall functional and walking competence was superior in the patients treated with the IMHS nail.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results indicate that the choice of the proper implant plays probably an important role in the final outcome of surgical treatment of intertrochanteric fractures. IMHS nail allows for accurate surgical technique, for both static and dynamic compression and high rotational stability. IMHS nail proved more reliable in our study regarding nail insertion and overall uncomplicated outcome.</p